Polling organizations starting to include Gary Johnson in presidential surveys
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He’s the longest of the long shots for President but it seems that the effect of Libertarian Party candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson on the November showdown between President Obama and likely Republican candidate Mitt Romney could be more than merely imperceptible.
Johnson’s name is appearing on more statewide and national polls since he won the Libertarian nomination earlier this month and while the numbers are hardly overwhelming, he is drawing the attention of a few voters across the country.
Gary Johnson accepts Libertarian Party nomination, Las Vegas, 5/5/12
For example, Johnson received 9 percent of the vote in a survey conducted by Public Policy Pollingearlier this week among Arizona voters.
On Thursday (May 24), the candidate who wants to slash the federal budget 47 percent (including military spending) while advocating for gay rights and marijuana legalization among other things polled at 5 percent in Wisconsin in a survey conducted by Reason/Rupe.
In a national survey conducted by the Washington Times and JZ Analytics released May 13, Johnson was preferred by 2 percent of voters.
Certainly not big numbers but in a razor-close election between Obama and Romney, Johnson could have an effect on who ends up in the White House.
Johnson’s larger strategy is to qualify for the three presidential debates later this year — an opportunity for him to spread his libertarian gospel of small government and maximum personal freedom. In order to get on the stage with the Democratic and Republican party nominees (something that hasn’t been done by a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992), Johnson must poll at 15 percent in at least five nationally-recognized polls.
He’s still a long way from that number but the Johnson campaign’s first task has been to simply get the major polling organizations to place his name in the questions it asks potential voters.
At least one polling organization has agreed. On May 16, Zogby posted on its website:
Thank you to all the dedicated Libertarians who have called and emailed asking to see their party’s candidate on future surveys of the presidential race. Rest assured, we will be including Gary Johnson as we move forward.
It’s critical for the nascent Johnson campaign to convince other polling organizations to follow suit.
Does a viable Johnson candidacy hurt Romney more than Obama, just as Perot hurt George H.W. Bush more than Bill Clinton in ’92?
In its Arizona poll, Public Policy Polling seemed to indicate so. When having to choose between just Romney or Obama, Romney won in the PPP poll in the Grand Canyon State 50-43. When Johnson’s name was added, Romney’s lead dropped from 7 points over Obama down to 4 (45-41).
But the results were more mixed in the Wisconsin survey conducted by Reason/Rupe:
Gary Johnson voters in Wisconsin are difficult to categorize, as they agree with Mitt Romney supporters to end automatic union dues deductions, and think public employee unions have too much power and get better benefits than private sector workers. However, they are more like Obama supporters in that they are less comfortable limiting public unions’ collective bargaining, and are slightly more likely to vote for Tom Barrett (38 to 33 percent). They self-identify as Independent, but tend to lean Republican.
(Tom Barrett is the Democrat who running against Republican Scott Walker in a recall election for governor that’s being closely watched by both national parties.)
Posted under Capitol Report.
Tags: Barack Obama, Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party, Mitt Romney, Reason/Rupe, Ross Perot, Scott Wallker, Tom Barrett, Washington Times/JZ Analytics, Zogby
6:38 pm on May 27th, 2012
I was one of those dedicated Libertarians that called in, and I’m happy PPP, Reason-Rupe, and Zogby have all decided to put GJ in their polls. When only 20% of respondents know who Gary Johnson is, but 9% will vote for him, I know I’m supporting the candidate that most can agree with.
9:04 pm on May 27th, 2012
Gary Johnson is well known for achieving his goals and one of them will be to hit the mark in the polls to get him on the national platform that spurned him early on in the Republican primary. This may turn out to have been a boon for him. Gary Johnson is not afraid to speak of and promote the things he believes in and as more and more American’s learn about these things they are coming to embrace him in greater numbers.
3:05 pm on May 28th, 2012
Since the Republican Party seems to be focused on throwing their only constitutionalist candidate, Ron Paul, under the bus by hook or crook, they are certainly telling me by their actions that Gary Johnson will be my best option this fall. And I will once again be supporting true constitutionalists again in 2016. If the GOP wants to throw my vote away again then too, well fine.
9:45 pm on May 28th, 2012
If Johnson did show 15% support in five polls, they would change the rules. A lot of the pollsters, however, will do the dirty work instead and simply exclude him.
1:53 pm on May 29th, 2012
Not only can Gary Johnson’s appearance in the 2012 Presidential election tip the scale between Obama and Romney, the appearance of the third-party candidate will move this country closer to a three (or more) party system. The old two-party system has run its course. As Gore Vidal once said, “There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party…and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat.” Believe me, I would never want to see Mitt Romney in the White House but I believe it is time to put more than two parties’ names on the political dance card. Gary Johnson is a strong 3rd party candidate and he’s on the ballot is all 50 states.
11:11 pm on May 30th, 2012
http://www.change.org/petitions/american-voters-allow-the-libertarian-candidate-to-be-part-of-the-presidential-debates
Would you help me get Gary into the debates? He will be on every ballot in November and his message deserves to be heard.
1:23 am on June 23rd, 2012
I’m voting for Gary Johnson. Regardless of polls. Not one poll asked me (nor did I tell) if he were allowed to debate I think he would at least be able to compete.
1:28 am on June 23rd, 2012
He won’t be on the West Virginia ballot unless we get another 3k signatures in the next month. If you live or know someone that lives in Wv and is willing to sign the petition to place him on the ballot inbox me on Facebook. http://m.facebook.com/profile.php?id=656307806&story_fbid=446789192006958&v=feed&src=email_notif#!/NaturesassisstanceinWv?__user=100003536564293