Obama lead on Romney in NM down to 5 points, Gary Johnson at 13%
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Things are tightening up for Barack Obama in New Mexico.
The national polling organization Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a survey Wednesday (July 18) showing that Obama’s lead on Mitt Romney has gone down from 14 and 15 points in earlier surveys in the state by PPP to 5.
PPP, which is associated with the Democratic Party, reports that Obama leads Romney 49-44 in the poll of 724 voters who took part in a phone survey between July 13-16.
Obama’s net approval has dropped 9 points since PPP’s last poll in April while Romney’s has improved 13 points, although his unfavorable rating in New Mexico is at -9 (with 41 percent seeing him favorably while 50 percent see him unfavorably).
And in an interesting wrinkle in the new poll, PPP asked if Romney selected New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez as his vice-presidential pick how that would affect the race in the state and Obama’s numbers drop all the way down to 48-47, well within the margin of error.
“That’s a testament to Martinez’s appeal with Democrats,” PPP’s Tom Jensen said in a news release accompanying Wednesday’s poll. “She would reduce Obama’s lead with them even further to 70-25. There aren’t a lot of potential VP choices who would make a big difference in their home states, but there also aren’t a lot with a 56/34 approval spread.”
Here is how PPP phrased the questions:
PPP also asked New Mexico voters about the presidential bid by Libertarian Party candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.
The good news for Johnson? He polls at 13 percent in his home state.
The bad news? Johnson’s numbers have slipped from 23 percent last December and 15 percent in April of this year in PPP polls in New Mexico that included him.
Here are the numbers in the question PPP asked when it included Johnson’s name with Obama and Romney:
Another interesting aspect?
A lot of Republicans have worried that a serious Johnson candidacy would hurt Romney more than Obama but in this particular poll, Johnson pulls down Obama’s numbers from 42 percent to 38 and, as Jensen points out, Johnson “gets 24 percent of the independent vote, and a lot of his support is coming from more Democratic leaning independents.”
Those results echo what Johnson has told reporters this summer — that his presence in the race doesn’t necessarily hurt Romney and appeals to voters who are so turned off by both Democrats and Republicans that a large number of these disaffected voters wouldn’t have voted anyway.
The PPP survey — similar to the poll the organization released Tuesday regarding the Senate race between Heather Wilson and Martin Heinrich – was made up of 52 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 16 percent Independent/Other and 50 percent white and 50 percent non-white.
You can read the entire PPP survey by clicking here.
Posted under Capitol Report.
Tags: Barack Obama, Gary Johnson, Heather Wilson, Martin Heinrich, Mitt Romney, Public Policy Polling, Susana Martinez, Tom Jensen
4:10 pm on July 18th, 2012
To call Gary Johnson and underdog in this race would be an understatement but he has a lifetime of achievement that shows he should be not underestimated. Getting to 13% in New Mexico is a great accomplishment and now citizens of that great state must continue to rally and help the former governor’s nationwide presence be known. Gary Johnson will do the job if his national awareness can just top the 15% mark. At that time, he will eat Obama and Romney on the national stage.
10:21 pm on July 18th, 2012
i hope John Balzer is spot on in his predictions!
WHERE will GJ be at the day after Ron Paul waves the white flag and endorses Mr Johnson 2012
8:30 am on July 19th, 2012
It’s disturbing that so many are supporting Gary Johnson this election. This election isn’t a game. I myself couldn’t manage to pull the lever for McCain last election, however this time around we need to support our best shot of removing Obama and that is, of course, Romney. Anyone supporting or voting for Gary Johnson is Obama’s best friend and is working to destroy the U.S. as we ever knew it. So “Watchdog” get off Gary Johnson and Ron Paul and work for America this time around. Otherwise you might as well endorse Obama and drop the pretense of trying to improve the country.
9:07 am on July 19th, 2012
Ron Paul 2012.
Dr. Paul is the only one that has our personal liberties in mind…
Romney is the same as obama… Bought and payed for.
9:08 am on July 19th, 2012
Ok, Mr. Johnson also has the people in his thoughts… I think it should be Paul, Johnson 2012.
9:26 am on July 19th, 2012
Well Liberty, the reality is that we are looking at a tickent of Obama/Biden, Romney/?, & Johnson/Gray (He could make Paul Chief of ending the marijuana/hemp wars).
10:06 am on July 19th, 2012
And GaryJohnson’s views are nearly identical to those of Ron Paul. I hope that when Ron Paul is not the Republican nominee, you will vote for Gary Johnson!
4:46 pm on July 19th, 2012
Voting my conscience. Voting Gary Johnson. Democrats and Republicans… two sides of the same coin. How about some real change to this broken two party system?
3:03 am on July 20th, 2012
It’s disturbing that so many are still thinking of voting for one of the candidates of the failed establishment cartel this election, Romney or Obama. This election isn’t a game. The Republicans and Democrats are destroying the economy and leading the U.S. toward a police state.
I support Ron Paul for the Republican presidential nomination, and if he doesn’t get it (as expected after the establishment has done everything in its power to keep him from being the nominee), then Gary Johnson is the only choice that makes sense.
A vote for Romney is a vote for Obama, and a vote for Obama is a vote for Romney! They are both spoilers of freedom and democracy.
1:22 am on July 21st, 2012
I see that spam bots are out.
I still don’t understand why people are so eager to replace Obama with a white Republican version of Obama. Does it make any sense to oust Obama by voting in a guy who will continue doing nearly everything that Obama was doing?
Vote “yes” on civil liberties, ending wars, and shrinking government.
Gary Johnson 2012!!!
3:11 pm on July 24th, 2012
Uh…Richard, if you read the article it said that Gary pulled Obama down from 42% to 38%? How is voting for Gary like voting for Obama again? I’m not sure you Republicans understand math very well…unless it is multiplying debt, increasing wars, dividing the nation and adding to your politicians pockets. As a recovering Republican, I can never vote for Dole/McCain/Romney/Bush types ever again. No thanks.
3:12 pm on July 24th, 2012
49 to 42%…oops.