There’s still a month to go until Election Day, but if the polls are to be trusted, Heather Wilson has to come from behind to knock off Martin Heinrich.

On Monday (Oct. 1), the national polling organization Rasmussen Reports released a survey of New Mexico voters showing that Heinrich has a 13- point lead:

Heinrich, who is stepping down from the US House Representatives to run for the Senate seat about to vacated by the retiring Jeff Bingaman, has led in virtually every poll that has come out during his run against Wilson, who served in the House from 1998-2009.

Republicans on Monday pointed to what they see as a flaw in the sampling in the Rasmussen poll: That the survey of 500 likely voters across the state was made up of 49 percent white voters and 50 percent “other” and 1 percent black. The “other” category is made up largely of Hispanic and Native American voters in state. Wilson supporters say a more correct sampling would be in the 35-42 percent range.

But having said that, one GOP observer told Capitol Report New Mexico about the Rasmussen poll showing Heinrich leading Wilson 45-43 among white voters. “That’s a legitimate problem,” the party supporter said.

The latest numbers shift the race from “Leans Democrat” to “Safe Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power Projections.

Last week, the Wilson camp was talking up a poll by Public Opinion Strategies showing Wilson within a point (43 percent to 42 percent) and also showing third-party candidate Jon Barrie getting 9 percent.

The Rasmussen poll released Monday did not include Barrie in its survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

In previous Rasmussen surveys this year, Heinrich led Wilson in late August 48-42, 46-42 in April and 45-43 in February.

The reactions to Monday’s poll?

“The barrage of misleading attack ads from Heather Wilson, Karl Rove and the corporate special interests are not working,” Heinrich spokesperson Whitney Potter said in an e-mail to Capitol Report New Mexico. “Martin has led in every poll conducted by any pollster this year because his priorities are New Mexico’s priorities — always keeping our promises to our veterans, protecting Social Security and Medicare, cutting taxes for the middle class, and making college affordable.”

As of 7:29 p.m. MDT, the Wilson camp had not offered any comment.

Wilson and Heinrich will square off in the first of four televised on Oct. 11 in the studios of KRQE-TV in Albuquerque.