Our monthly look at the Electoral College: Obama expands his lead on Romney

By Rob Nikolewski on October 3, 2012
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It was a rough month for Mitt Romney, what with that “47 percent” comment, and in our monthly snapshot of where the presidential race stands when it comes to the only thing that matters — the Electoral College — Barack Obama has widened his lead on the Republican nominee.

As of October 3, a glance at the Real Clear Politics map shows Obama with a 269-181 lead on Romney. That’s just one Electoral College vote shy of winning re-election.

Last month (September 4), our snapshot showed Romney narrowing Obama’s lead in the Electoral College to just 30 (221-191) with 10 states in the “toss-up” category.

Now, according to Real Clear Politics’ formula of combining polling numbers across the 50 states, Obama’s lead has widened to 88, with just seven states listed as “toss-ups.”

In the past month, four states went from “toss-up” to “lean Obama” — New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin — while Missouri went from “lean Romney” to “toss-up.”

Here’s how the map looks now:

And here’s how the seven “toss-up” states rate using Real Clear Politics’ overall averages in polling data:

Colorado (9 Electoral College votes) Obama +3.1

Florida (29) Obama +2.0

Iowa (6) Obama +3.5

Missouri (10) Romney +5.3

Nevada (6) Obama +5.2

North Carolina (15) Romney +0.8

Virginia (13) Obama +3.5

We’re posting this story less than two hours before the first of three debates between Obama and Romney and, judging by these numbers, it seems that New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez was right when she told us on videotape this morning that a strong performance from Romney is “critical.” Click here to hear that soundbite.

We’ll post one final snapshot next month — just prior to Election Day, which is November 6.

 

Posted under Capitol Report.
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One Comment For This Post So Far

  1. Bill Hilbert
    6:40 pm on October 3rd, 2012

    So far the polls are are deceiving. I for one do not trust how the information was captured. With Obama’s negative performance I am amazed how people do not know or they do not care.

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