Our monthly look at the Electoral College: Obama expands his lead on Romney
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It was a rough month for Mitt Romney, what with that “47 percent” comment, and in our monthly snapshot of where the presidential race stands when it comes to the only thing that matters — the Electoral College — Barack Obama has widened his lead on the Republican nominee.
Last month (September 4), our snapshot showed Romney narrowing Obama’s lead in the Electoral College to just 30 (221-191) with 10 states in the “toss-up” category.
Now, according to Real Clear Politics’ formula of combining polling numbers across the 50 states, Obama’s lead has widened to 88, with just seven states listed as “toss-ups.”
In the past month, four states went from “toss-up” to “lean Obama” — New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin — while Missouri went from “lean Romney” to “toss-up.”
Here’s how the map looks now:
And here’s how the seven “toss-up” states rate using Real Clear Politics’ overall averages in polling data:
Colorado (9 Electoral College votes) Obama +3.1
Florida (29) Obama +2.0
Iowa (6) Obama +3.5
Missouri (10) Romney +5.3
Nevada (6) Obama +5.2
North Carolina (15) Romney +0.8
Virginia (13) Obama +3.5
We’re posting this story less than two hours before the first of three debates between Obama and Romney and, judging by these numbers, it seems that New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez was right when she told us on videotape this morning that a strong performance from Romney is “critical.” Click here to hear that soundbite.
We’ll post one final snapshot next month — just prior to Election Day, which is November 6.