Did Romney get a post-debate bounce? It looks like it
Print This Post
But for all the postgame celebrating (for Republicans) and hand-wringing (for Democrats), did it make any difference to the electorate?
After a weekend of polling, it seems the answer is that Romney did get a bounce in the numbers — although he’s still behind in polling for the Electoral College.
A glance by Capitol Report New Mexico at some of the polling organizations that conducted surveys nationally and in battleground states, appears to show Romney picked up ground on Obama:
*Rasmussen Reports came out with a poll of the critical swing state of Florida on Friday and surveyed voters in the Sunshine State a day after the debate. The result? Romney had taken the lead over Obama, 49 percent to 47 percent. Last month, the President led, 48-46.
*Public Policy Polling released a poll Sunday night (Oct. 7) from Virginia, showing that Obama’s lead had shrunk by two points. Now it’s 50-47. Three weeks ago it was 51-46.
*In Wisconsin, Romney saw a very good bump, going from being down by by 7 points (52-45) to now being down by just two points (49-47) in a survey by Public Policy Polling that was released Saturday (Oct. 6). This coming Thursday (Oct. 11), Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan debates Joe Biden in the one and only Vice Presidential debate of this election cycle.
*One day after the debate, Rasmussen Reports conducted a survey in of likely voters in Ohio showed Obama with a 1-point lead on Romney (50-49), the same margin as last month when Obama led 47-46.
*But We Ask America conducted polls in Ohio, Virginia and Florida one day after the debate and showed Romney leading in all three states:
*The results caused Real Clear Politics (RCP) to move Ohio from “Leans Obama” back to the “Toss-Up” category. In the RCP’s Electoral College map, Obama still has a big lead on Romney, 251-181. It takes 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.
Gallup has not released a poll of President Obama’s approval numbers since six days before the debate (Sept. 27), when it showed Obama at 51 percent approval nationally leading Romney, 50-44. Gallup is scheduled to release new, post-debate numbers this Tuesday. Update 10/8: Gallup released its numbers on Monday. Before last week’s debate Obama led Romney 50-45 in its national survey of registered voters. But in the poll released Monday, Obama and Romney are tied at 47-47.
A couple other notes:
*Judging from the We Ask America polls listed above and looking at the small numbers for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, it makes one wonder if a revived Romney might cause voters who were considering voting for Johnson to reconsider.
*And we’ll see if Obama gets a bounce of his own after last Friday’s unemployment numbers dropped from 8.1 to 7.8 percent.
*Just before last week’s debate, Rasmussen Reports had Obama with an 11-point lead on Romney here in New Mexico.